the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume has released its latest Crypto Derivatives Analytics Report in collaboration with Block Scholes.
The analysis reviews market conditions surrounding the year’s final Federal Open Market Committee meeting, where policymakers delivered a widely expected 25 basis point rate cut. Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks kept the possibility of either a pause or another cut in January 2026 in play, contributing to a restrained response across crypto markets.
Key Highlights:
Perpetuals: Open interest is still far lower than the levels it plummeted from pre-October 10, and funding rates in leveraged contracts suggest retail traders are still unwilling to re-enter positions in perpetual swap contracts.
Options: Volatility smiles are bearish across the whole term structure for both BTC and ETH with volatility smiles pricing in close to a 5 percent premium for OTM puts over calls for both short-dated and long-dated BTC and ETH options. As such, those waiting for a so-called Santa rally may end up disappointed, at least based on current positioning in derivatives markets.
The report highlights minimal shifts in perpetual swap activity, subdued implied volatility and continued skepticism in options positioning. While the Fed conveyed an improved economic outlook, sentiment in crypto derivatives remains cautious. BTC’s spot price is still 28 percent below its all-time high, and options markets continue to price meaningful downside protection. According to the findings, traders have yet to see catalysts strong enough to support a late year resurgence.
Han Tan, Chief Market Analyst at Bybit Learn, said the broader macro backdrop continues to influence crypto market reactions. “The Fed’s policy outlook will frame market reactions to this week’s US jobs report and inflation data releases. Crypto bulls still have their work cut out to get any upside momentum going, considering that digital assets could only muster a tepid response to the final FOMC meeting of 2025, in stark contrast to global equities that surged to new record highs. Merely middling activity across the derivatives complex suggests that the window for a crypto ‘santa rally’ is getting narrower and the bar notably set higher.”
The report concludes that traders are showing limited appetite to re-engage with leverage while options markets continue to indicate caution across short and long horizons. Current positioning suggests a tempered outlook for any year end rebound.
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